Mexico's Drug War

Executive Summary

Mexico's drug war has evolved into one of the world's most complex and deadly conflicts, with profound implications for both Mexican society and U.S. national security. As we move through 2025, the conflict shows both concerning escalations and some unexpected developments that are reshaping the criminal landscape across North America.

Key Findings:

• Mexico recorded over 300,000 homicides in the past decade, with violence costing 18% of GDP in 2024
• The Sinaloa Cartel's internal fracture following "El Mayo" Zambada's arrest has triggered widespread territorial reorganization
• Fentanyl has become the dominant revenue driver, with cartels now designated as foreign terrorist organizations
• Despite tactical successes, structural challenges suggest continued instability through 2025-2026

The Current Landscape: Violence and Economic Impact

Staggering Human Toll

Mexico's drug war has exacted an unprecedented human cost. Since the government officially declared war on cartels in 2006, the country has witnessed over 460,000 homicides. The scale of violence places Mexico among the world's deadliest conflicts, with the country ranking fourth in the latest Global Conflict Index.

The most recent statistics paint a sobering picture:

• 2024 homicide rate: 23.3 deaths per 100,000 people, marking the fourth consecutive year of improvement but still dramatically higher than 2015 levels
• Missing persons crisis: Over 115,000 people are considered missing as of September 2024, with 13,117 people reported missing in 2024 alone—a 36% increase from 2023
• Femicide epidemic: Cases nearly doubled from 428 in 2015 to 829 in 2024, representing a 93.7% increase

Economic Devastation

The economic impact of Mexico's drug war has reached catastrophic proportions. According to the Institute for Economics and Peace, violence cost Mexico an estimated $245 billion in 2024—equivalent to 18% of the country's GDP. This represents the first increase in violence-related economic costs since 2019.

The financial burden manifests in multiple ways:

• Per capita impact: Each Mexican citizen bore a cost of 33,905 pesos (approximately $1,765) due to violence
• Military spending surge: A record 39% increase in military expenditures contributed to rising costs
• Judicial inefficiency: For every dollar of economic impact from violence, government crime-fighting efforts amounted to just 17 cents
• Impunity crisis: 93% of crimes go unreported, and less than 0.9% of crimes are solved

Major Players: The Cartel Landscape of 2024-2025

The Sinaloa Cartel: A House Divided

The Sinaloa Cartel, long considered Mexico's most powerful criminal organization, experienced a seismic shift in July 2024 when co-founder Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada and Joaquín Guzmán López (son of El Chapo) were arrested by U.S. authorities in El Paso, Texas. The circumstances of Zambada's arrest—allegedly deceived by Guzmán López into boarding a plane to the United States—triggered an internal war that has reshaped Mexico's criminal landscape.

Current Structure:

• Mayiza faction: Led by Zambada loyalists, now under the command of his son "El Mayito Flaco"
• Chapitos faction: Controlled by El Chapo's remaining sons, including Iván Archivaldo and Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar
• Armed wings: Each faction commands specialized units—the Chapitos control the Ninis, Salazar, and Gente Nueva groups, while Mayiza networks work with the Antrax and Rusos

The internal conflict has been particularly devastating in Sinaloa state, where drone attacks and explosive devices have become commonplace. The violence represents what experts call a "war of honor," with uncertain prospects for resolution.

Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG): The Expanding Empire

The CJNG has emerged as Mexico's most aggressive and rapidly expanding criminal organization. Led by Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes ("El Mencho"), the cartel has capitalized on the Sinaloa Cartel's fragmentation to expand its territorial control.

Strategic Advantages:

• Territorial expansion: CJNG has extended operations from its Jalisco stronghold to compete for control in key trafficking corridors
• Military sophistication: The cartel created specialized paramilitary units of at least 10 members for drone operations, learning tactics from the Ukraine conflict
• Global reach: Operations now span from Mexico to India, where authorities busted a CJNG-linked methamphetamine lab in Greater Noida in October 2024
• Revenue diversification: Beyond drug trafficking, CJNG generates hundreds of millions through fuel theft, extortion, and crude oil smuggling

Recent Developments:

• Designated as a foreign terrorist organization by the U.S. in February 2025
• Key arrests include El Mencho's son-in-law Cristian Fernando Gutierrez-Ochoa in November 2024
• Recapture of El Mencho's brother Abraham "Don Rodo" in February 2025

Gulf Cartel and Regional Players

The Gulf Cartel, despite being one of Mexico's oldest criminal organizations, continues to control strategic territory along the Texas border. However, the organization faces persistent internal conflicts and territorial challenges from expanding rivals.

Other Significant Groups:

• Los Zetas/Cartel del Noreste: Remnants of the former Zetas organization maintain control in northeastern Mexico
• Beltrán Leyva Organization: Recently highlighted for operating what experts believe is the world's largest fentanyl production network
• Regional splinter groups: Over 442 distinct criminal groups now operate across Mexico, highlighting the fragmentation of the criminal landscape

Current Trends: The Fentanyl Revolution

The Synthetic Drug Transformation

The shift toward synthetic drugs, particularly fentanyl, has fundamentally altered Mexico's drug war. This transformation reflects changing consumption patterns in the United States and the economic advantages of synthetic production.

Fentanyl's Impact:

• Production efficiency: Up to 50 times stronger than heroin and potentially 2,700 times more profitable
• Supply chain dominance: Approximately 98% of fentanyl entering the U.S. comes from Mexico
• Record seizures: DEA seized over 60 million fentanyl-laced fake pills and nearly 8,000 pounds of fentanyl powder in 2024
• Production network: The largest seizure in history occurred in December 2024, when Mexican authorities confiscated 1,500 kilograms (1.65 tons) of fentanyl from Sinaloa Cartel operations

The China Connection

China remains the primary source of precursor chemicals essential for fentanyl production. Despite international pressure and some cooperation improvements, the supply chain continues to operate:

Key Developments:

• Regulatory responses: China scheduled three fentanyl precursors in August 2024 that had been internationally controlled for two years
• Criminal charges: Eight China-based chemical companies and eight employees were indicted in 2024 for trafficking precursor chemicals
• Adaptation patterns: When restrictions tighten on specific chemicals, manufacturers quickly shift to alternative, unregulated precursors
• Financial networks: Chinese criminal gangs increasingly provide money laundering services for international cartels

Geographic Hotspots and Violence Patterns

The Most Dangerous States

Violence in Mexico remains highly concentrated in specific regions, with some states experiencing conflict levels comparable to active war zones:

Colima: The Epicenter of Violence

• Murder rate: 101 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2024, making it the world's most homicidal region for three consecutive years
• Strategic importance: Home to the port of Manzanillo, a critical hub for Asian precursor chemical imports
• Territorial control: Fierce competition between CJNG and Sinaloa Cartel factions

Other High-Violence States (2024 data):

• Veracruz: 38.1 per 100,000 (ongoing cartel competition for Gulf coast control)
• Guerrero: 37.5 per 100,000 (opium production and trafficking corridors)
• Nuevo León: 34.2 per 100,000 (industrial extortion and territorial disputes)
• Zacatecas: 29.7 per 100,000 (strategic crossroads for trafficking routes)
• Sinaloa: 28.9 per 100,000 (internal cartel warfare)

Peaceful Regions

Conversely, some Mexican states maintain relatively low violence levels:

• Yucatán: 1.8 per 100,000 (Mexico's most peaceful state for eight consecutive years)
• Tlaxcala: Low violence, limited cartel presence
• Durango: Reduced conflict due to consolidated territorial control

Government Response and Policy Evolution

The Sheinbaum Administration's Approach

President Claudia Sheinbaum, who took office in October 2024, inherited a complex security landscape shaped by her predecessor's "hugs, not bullets" policy. Early indicators suggest a potential shift toward more aggressive security measures.

Key Policy Developments:

• Increased military deployment: ACLED records show an uptick in clashes between state forces and criminal groups in Sheinbaum's first months
• National Guard expansion: Enhanced role for military-civilian hybrid forces
• Border cooperation: Mexico surged 10,000 National Guard troops to the U.S. border in response to American pressure

U.S.-Mexico Security Cooperation

The bilateral relationship has intensified under multiple pressures:

Trump Administration Pressure (2025):

• Terrorist designations: Formal designation of Mexican cartels as foreign terrorist organizations in February 2025
• Economic leverage: Threats of 25% tariffs on Mexican goods linked to drug trafficking and migration
• Military considerations: Discussions of potential drone strikes against cartel targets
• Extradition successes: 29 high-value cartel figures transferred to U.S. custody

Operational Cooperation:

• Intelligence sharing: Enhanced information exchange between agencies
• Joint operations: Coordinated raids and investigations
• Asset seizures: Targeting cartel financial networks and money laundering operations

The Human Rights Crisis

Military Involvement and Accountability

The expanded role of Mexico's military in law enforcement has raised significant human rights concerns:

Scale of Military Deployment:

• Personnel numbers: 232,761 soldiers, marines, and National Guard members deployed nationwide as of September 2024
• Lethal force statistics: From 2007 through July 2024, the Army reported killing 5,696 people claimed to be criminal group members
• Investigation gaps: Most military killings are not independently investigated by civilian authorities

Documented Abuses:

• Civilian casualties: Military personnel criticized for mistakenly killing six migrants in Chiapas
• Historical impunity: Military obstruction of investigations into past abuses, including the 2014 Ayotzinapa case
• Human rights oversight: Controversial reappointment of human rights commissioner accused of partisanship

Impact on Civil Society

The drug war's toll extends far beyond direct violence:

Press Freedom Crisis:

• Journalist fatalities: Mexico was the second deadliest country for journalists in 2022, with 13 killed
• 2018-2024 statistics: 3,408 attacks or threats against journalists, 46 killed, and four disappeared
• Self-censorship: Many journalists avoid covering cartel-related topics due to security threats

Displacement and Migration:

• Internal displacement: Thousands flee cartel-controlled territories
• Cross-border movement: In August 2025, Guatemala granted temporary humanitarian status to 161 Mexicans fleeing cartel violence in Chiapas
• Community breakdown: Destruction of social fabric in affected regions

Statistics and Data Analysis

Violence Trends and Patterns

Homicide Statistics (2015-2024):

• 2015: 15,000 homicides (15.1 per 100,000)
• 2018: 33,341 homicides (peak year)
• 2024: Approximately 30,000+ homicides (23.3 per 100,000)
• Total decade: Over 300,000 violent deaths

Cartel-Related Violence:

• 2006: 669 fatalities attributed to cartel conflicts
• 2020: Over 16,000 cartel conflict deaths
• 2023: 872 armed interactions between state forces and criminal groups (24% increase from 2022)
• 2024: Continued high levels with geographic concentration in specific states

Drug Seizure Data

Fentanyl Interdiction (2024-2025):

• U.S. seizures: Over 60 million fentanyl-laced pills and 8,000 pounds of powder (2024)
• Lethal dose equivalent: 380 million deadly doses seized in 2024
• Mexico operations: Record 1,500-kilogram seizure in December 2024
• Border statistics: 21,100 pounds seized at U.S.-Mexico border compared to 43 pounds at U.S.-Canada border

Precursor Chemical Trafficking:

• Source concentration: Over 90% of precursor chemicals originate in China
• Transportation routes: Chemicals shipped to Mexico via legal commercial channels
• Production capacity: Over 3,100 different chemicals can be used to manufacture fentanyl and analogs

Future Predictions and Scenarios

Short-Term Outlook (2025-2026)

Likely Developments:

Continued Sinaloa Fragmentation: The internal war within the Sinaloa Cartel is expected to persist through 2025, with several potential outcomes:

• Territorial division: Formal split into separate organizations controlling distinct regions
• CJNG exploitation: Continued expansion by CJNG into former Sinaloa territories
• Violence spillover: Increased civilian casualties as factions compete for control

Enhanced U.S. Pressure: The Trump administration's aggressive stance will likely intensify:

• Military intervention risks: Potential for limited cross-border operations
• Economic coercion: Sustained tariff threats to compel Mexican cooperation
• Intelligence operations: Expanded U.S. law enforcement presence in Mexico

Technological Evolution: Criminal organizations will continue adapting:

• Drone warfare: Increased use of aerial attack capabilities
• Synthetic drug innovation: Development of new fentanyl analogs to evade regulation
• Money laundering sophistication: Enhanced financial crime capabilities

Medium-Term Projections (2026-2028)

Structural Changes:

Organizational Fragmentation: The current trend toward smaller, more numerous criminal groups is likely to accelerate:

• Territorial complexity: Increased number of competing organizations
• Violence localization: More frequent but geographically contained conflicts
• Specialization trends: Groups focusing on specific criminal activities

Government Response Evolution: Mexican security policy will face continued pressure to adapt:

• Military normalization: Permanent expansion of military law enforcement role
• Judicial reform implementation: Impact of elected judges on cartel prosecutions
• International cooperation: Deepened integration with U.S. security apparatus

Economic Integration: The relationship between legitimate and illicit economies will deepen:

• Infrastructure exploitation: Increased use of legal trade routes for smuggling
• Financial system penetration: Enhanced money laundering through formal banking
• Corruption institutionalization: Systematic compromise of government institutions

Long-Term Scenarios (2028-2030)

Scenario 1: Stabilization Through Accommodation

• Territorial agreements: Informal division of criminal territories
• Reduced violence: Decline in inter-cartel conflicts
• Persistent trafficking: Continued drug flow with less associated violence

Scenario 2: Escalation and State Crisis

• Governance breakdown: Loss of government control in multiple states
• International intervention: Formal U.S. military involvement
• Refugee crisis: Large-scale population displacement

Scenario 3: Transformation and Adaptation

• Criminal evolution: Shift toward white-collar crime and cyber operations
• Drug market changes: New synthetic substances and distribution methods
• Regional expansion: Mexican cartels dominating broader Latin American markets

Policy Implications and Recommendations

For Mexico

Immediate Priorities:

1. Judicial system strengthening: Implement effective oversight mechanisms for new elected judge system
2. Military accountability: Establish independent oversight for military law enforcement operations
3. Anti-corruption measures: Systematic reform of institutions vulnerable to cartel influence
4. Social investment: Targeted programs in high-violence regions to address root causes

Long-term Strategies:

1. Economic development: Alternative livelihoods for populations in drug-producing regions
2. Education and opportunity: Youth programs to reduce cartel recruitment
3. Institutional capacity: Professional, well-equipped civilian law enforcement
4. Regional cooperation: Enhanced coordination with Central American partners

For the United States

Border Security Enhancements:

1. Technology deployment: Advanced detection systems for fentanyl and precursors
2. Intelligence integration: Real-time information sharing with Mexican counterparts
3. Financial investigation: Targeting cartel money laundering networks
4. Demand reduction: Domestic programs to reduce drug consumption

Diplomatic Strategies:

1. Multilateral engagement: Coordinated pressure on China regarding precursor chemicals
2. Development assistance: Support for Mexican social and economic programs
3. Migration management: Comprehensive approach linking security and humanitarian concerns
4. Trade policy: Balanced use of economic incentives and pressure

International Cooperation

Global Responses:

1. Precursor control: Enhanced international coordination on chemical regulation
2. Financial crime: Strengthened anti-money laundering mechanisms
3. Information sharing: Improved intelligence cooperation among affected nations
4. Technology transfer: Support for Mexican law enforcement capabilities

Conclusion

Mexico's drug war represents one of the most complex security challenges of the 21st century, with implications extending far beyond Mexico's borders. The conflict has evolved from a traditional law enforcement issue into a multifaceted crisis involving terrorism, migration, public health, and international relations.

The current period marks a critical juncture, with the Sinaloa Cartel's fragmentation creating both opportunities and risks. While the breakdown of Mexico's most powerful criminal organization could eventually lead to reduced violence, the immediate term promises continued instability and territorial conflicts.

The designation of Mexican cartels as foreign terrorist organizations represents a significant escalation in U.S. policy, with potentially far-reaching consequences for bilateral relations and regional stability. The success of this approach will largely depend on Mexico's willingness to cooperate and the international community's ability to address the global dimensions of the fentanyl trade.

Looking ahead, the drug war's trajectory will be shaped by several key factors: the resolution of the Sinaloa Cartel's internal conflict, the effectiveness of government responses in both Mexico and the United States, and the international community's ability to disrupt the precursor chemical supply chain originating in China.

While the human and economic costs of this conflict continue to mount, the recent improvements in some violence indicators suggest that progress is possible. However, sustainable solutions will require addressing the underlying social, economic, and institutional factors that have allowed organized crime to flourish in Mexico. The next few years will be crucial in determining whether Mexico can break the cycle of violence that has defined the past two decades or whether the drug war will continue to exact its devastating toll on Mexican society and regional stability.

The stakes could not be higher—for Mexico's 130 million citizens, for the hundreds of thousands of Americans affected by the opioid crisis, and for the broader question of whether democratic institutions can prevail against the corrupting influence of transnational organized crime. The choices made in the coming months and years will reverberate across the hemisphere for decades to come.